The hidden cost of static energy planning

Most factories know their annual energy bill. Very few know which machine, shift pattern or production sequence is responsible for their demand peaks — the spikes that trigger demand charges and push grid capacity contracts to sizes the plant rarely actually needs. Energy audits give a snapshot. Static Excel models give an average. Neither tells you what happens to peak demand when you add a second shift, bring in a new press line, or move forming to the night shift.

For decarbonisation planning the problem is worse. Carbon accounting tools aggregate annual consumption and apply average emission factors — they cannot show you which operational change reduces Scope 2 emissions most cost-effectively, or whether a 500 kWh battery storage system actually reduces your grid draw or just shifts it by 20 minutes.

The planning gap: Energy infrastructure decisions — grid connection size, battery storage, PV capacity, compressed air upgrades — are capital-intensive and hard to reverse. Simulation lets you test them virtually first, with your actual production schedule as the driver.

What the simulation captures

We build a discrete-event or system dynamics model of your facility's energy system — machine-level power profiles driven by your actual production schedule, HVAC and compressed air as dynamic loads, and utility tariff structures (including time-of-use and demand charges). The model outputs energy profiles at 1-minute or 15-minute resolution, peak demand events, CO₂ intensity per product unit, and the marginal cost of each kWh under different tariff scenarios.

Peak load management

Identify which production sequences drive demand peaks. Test load-shifting, start-up staggering and interruptible load strategies before negotiating your grid contract.

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Battery storage sizing

Right-size BESS investment by simulating actual charge/discharge cycles against your production schedule. Avoid over-specifying — or under-specifying — storage capacity.

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Solar PV self-consumption

Overlay realistic PV generation profiles with your shift-driven consumption to find the self-consumption ratio and true payback period — not the brochure figure.

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New line energy impact

Before commissioning a new press, furnace or compressor, simulate the energy and peak demand impact on the existing facility — including grid connection implications.

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CO₂ reduction roadmap

Model Scope 1 and 2 emissions per production scenario. Compare electrification, fuel switching and efficiency measures to find the lowest-cost decarbonisation path.

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Compressed air optimisation

Compressed air is typically 20–30% of industrial energy use. Simulate compressor scheduling, leak loss and pressure band management to reduce baseline consumption.

How the project works

1

Energy audit & data collection

We review energy meter data (ideally 15-minute interval, 12+ months), production schedules, shift patterns and the machine inventory. Gaps in metering are estimated from nameplate data and operating factor assumptions, sensitivity-tested later.

2

Model build & calibration

The simulation model is built and calibrated against historical meter data — we validate that the model reproduces known peak events, baseline consumption and seasonal variation before running scenarios.

3

Scenario experiments

Investment scenarios — battery storage, PV, load shifting, production rescheduling — are tested against the calibrated model. Each scenario produces an energy profile, CO₂ accounting and financial summary under your tariff structure.

4

Investment brief & model handover

You receive a prioritised investment brief with quantified savings per scenario and payback periods, plus the executable model so your energy team can test future schedule changes independently.

What you get at the end

Ranked
investment options with quantified savings, CO₂ reduction and payback period
15-min
resolution energy profiles per scenario — ready for grid operator discussions
Live model
reusable as production schedules change — no ongoing licence needed to run it

The energy simulation model becomes a permanent planning tool — load it with next year's production plan and see the energy budget before the year begins. It is not a one-time deliverable but an ongoing asset for your energy and operations teams.

Simulation vs energy audit — what's different?

CapabilityEnergy simulationStatic energy audit
Dynamic peak load analysis✓ Minute-by-minute profiles under any schedule✗ Snapshot only — one production scenario
Battery / PV sizing✓ Simulated charge cycles vs actual scheduleAnnual averages only — misses daily mismatch
"What if" scenarios✓ Any schedule, tariff or equipment change testable✗ Requires new audit for each change
CO₂ per product unit✓ Tracked at machine level, allocated per batch✗ Total facility figure only
New line impact✓ Integrated into existing facility model✗ Not captured pre-commissioning

Tools & technology

Energy simulation sits at the intersection of discrete-event modelling (production schedule as event driver) and system dynamics (energy flow as continuous stock). AnyLogic handles this hybrid natively. For focused peak-load and storage optimisation studies we also use Python with time-series simulation — fast, auditable and easy to hand over to your in-house team.

AnyLogic Python (time-series) Simio (production interface) ISO 50001 compatible

All energy models are documented against ISO 50001 energy management framework terminology — including Significant Energy Use (SEU) identification and baseline comparisons — making the outputs directly usable in your energy management system and ESG reporting.

FAQ

Common questions about
energy & CO₂ simulation

The most useful inputs are: 15-minute interval smart meter data for at least 12 months, a production schedule or shift pattern, a list of major energy consumers (machines, HVAC, compressed air) with rated power, and your utility tariff structure (especially the demand charge component). If sub-metering is limited, we work from nameplate data and operating factors — these assumptions are documented and sensitivity-tested.
Yes — and this is one of the cases where simulation adds the most value over static calculations. Battery sizing tools typically assume a flat load profile. In reality, your production schedule creates highly variable demand. We simulate actual charge/discharge cycles against your schedule across hundreds of replications to find the storage capacity that achieves your target peak reduction at minimum cost.
The model applies grid emission factors (time-varying where available) to electricity consumption and fuel-specific factors to gas and compressed air. For Scope 2 this gives hourly CO₂ accounting aligned with market-based or location-based methods. For Scope 1 (gas, diesel) we model combustion directly. The output is CO₂ per product unit, per shift and per production scenario — usable directly in ESG reporting and internal carbon pricing.
Yes. We use location-specific irradiance data (hourly, real-year or typical meteorological year) to generate a PV production profile, then simulate self-consumption against your actual load profile. The output is self-consumption ratio, grid export, net savings under your feed-in tariff, and payback period — all at realistic production schedule variation, not just annual averages.
Yes, though with lower initial precision. We use nameplate power ratings, production logs and operating factor estimates to build the baseline, then calibrate against whatever billing data is available (monthly or quarterly totals). The model is still useful for comparing scenarios relative to each other. We also explicitly flag where additional metering would most improve model accuracy — which often provides an additional ROI from the project.
Yes — and for manufacturing clients this is often the most powerful combination. The production simulation drives the machine utilisation pattern, which drives the energy model. This means you can evaluate the energy impact of a new product mix, a shift restructuring, or a bottleneck removal — before any change is made on the shop floor.
Free consultation

Let's talk about your energy challenge

Tell us your situation — peak demand costs, a decarbonisation target, a storage investment decision. We'll tell you honestly whether simulation adds value and what the project would involve.

Response within 1 business day
Full NDA available as standard
Remote delivery worldwide
Transparent fixed-scope proposal

Germany — Dresden

Anton-Graff-Str. 24, D-01309
dresden@simulatefirst.com
+49 (0) 351 30906020

Poland — Wrocław

ul. Powstańców Śląskich 5, 53-332
polska@simulatefirst.com
+48 75 6406434

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